# \#probability

**URL:** https://discourse.datamethods.org/tag/probability/15.md

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## [Time-series - A powerful method to analyze non-linear patterns, even in very small data](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/time-series-a-powerful-method-to-analyze-non-linear-patterns-even-in-very-small-data/14650)

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**Author:** [@fargolo](https://discourse.datamethods.org/u/fargolo)\
**Replies:** 14\
**Last updated:** [May 11, 2026, 9:00pm UTC](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/time-series-a-powerful-method-to-analyze-non-linear-patterns-even-in-very-small-data/14650 "2026-05-11T21:00:25Z")

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I want to share a new method to perform inference on time-series. It allows one to study non-linear patterns in time-series, even in very small data. The SymbolicInference.jl package applies analytic combinatorics to Re…

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## [Computing Different Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/computing-different-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals/28010)

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**Author:** [@rafdoodle1](https://discourse.datamethods.org/u/rafdoodle1)\
**Replies:** 15\
**Last updated:** [May 12, 2025, 5:59pm UTC](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/computing-different-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals/28010 "2025-05-12T17:59:06Z")

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Hello Dr. Harrell, Hope you are doing well. To compute confidence intervals for Shap values (or even relative explained variation for that matter), I would need their standard errors if I can recall. The iml R package g…

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## [BBR Session 2: Probability and Descriptive Statistics](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/bbr-session-2-probability-and-descriptive-statistics/2483)

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**Author:** [@f2harrell](https://discourse.datamethods.org/u/f2harrell)\
**Replies:** 25\
**Last updated:** [October 22, 2019, 2:39pm UTC](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/bbr-session-2-probability-and-descriptive-statistics/2483 "2019-10-22T14:39:26Z")

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This is a topic for questions, answers, and discussions about session 2 of the Biostatistics for Biomedical Research web course airing on 2019-10-11. Session topics are listed here.

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## [Best smoothing methods for probability prediction calibration curves](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/best-smoothing-methods-for-probability-prediction-calibration-curves/2068)

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**Author:** [@hanowell](https://discourse.datamethods.org/u/hanowell)\
**Replies:** 1\
**Last updated:** [August 31, 2019, 11:44am UTC](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/best-smoothing-methods-for-probability-prediction-calibration-curves/2068 "2019-08-31T11:44:14Z")

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When drawing the calibration curve of a probability prediction model, I often observe wildly different results when I use LOWESS vs. a Gaussian additive model with smoothing splines vs. a binomial generalized additive mo…

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## [How to teach probability](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/how-to-teach-probability/389)

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**Author:** [@f2harrell](https://discourse.datamethods.org/u/f2harrell)\
**Replies:** 44\
**Last updated:** [May 1, 2019, 11:09am UTC](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/how-to-teach-probability/389 "2019-05-01T11:09:12Z")

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Understanding probability is key to understanding uncertainty, quantifying evidence for effects, and making decisions in the face of uncertainty. In teaching many clinicians over many years I’ve found the lack of suffic…

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## [Disentangling Competing Risks with and without Endogeneity](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/disentangling-competing-risks-with-and-without-endogeneity/839)

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**Author:** [@DanL](https://discourse.datamethods.org/u/DanL)\
**Replies:** 1\
**Last updated:** [October 20, 2018, 1:03pm UTC](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/disentangling-competing-risks-with-and-without-endogeneity/839 "2018-10-20T13:03:01Z")

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I was talking to a buddy about a study he is planning. I recognized the study has a significant competing risks problem, but to me, it seems a like special case of competing risks where I’m not sure the usual approaches …

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## [About the probability category](https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/about-the-probability-category/50)

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**Author:** [@f2harrell](https://discourse.datamethods.org/u/f2harrell)\
**Replies:** 0

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Probability theory, meaning, and application exclusive of statistical tests, etc.