I was initially thinking about adding this as a comment to the thread on prediction models for COVID-19, but that is focused on prospective predictions for individuals, whereas this paper from Ferguson et al at Imperial College in London, just published earlier this week, is focused on population level predictions.
It is this new paper that has been credited as being the catalyst for the more aggressive policies now being implemented by govts around the world, and certainly the profound, but perhaps still insufficient, policy shift here in the US. The conclusions of the paper are not necessarily new, some having been posited weeks ago, but the credibility of the source of this research has given the predictions a new sense of urgency and influence.
Here is the link to the PDF of the full paper:
For those that have not yet seen the paper, or the sobering impact of COVID-19 on mortality, morbidity and healthcare system resource utilization, in the absence of, and perhaps even in the face of social distancing, I would urge reading it.
As an aside, Prof. Ferguson is now on self-quarantine, as a result of becoming symptomatic: