Predicting survival times

[albertoca]

Here is an example of a plot showing the bias in the prediction of survival, from a Cox model with severe departure from the PH assumption. You can see how the prediction (in red) deviates substantially from the estimate by Kaplan-Meier (in black).

Is the interaction between Clinical Researchers and Statisticians working? My insight after reading four failed clinical trials on immunotherapy

For example, in the case of the Keynote-061 trial, I show a plot with the prediction from the Cox model (in red) against Kaplan-Meier estimates (black). The inability to capture the real effect of immunotherapy in this scenario is very striking. The reason for bias and reduction in statistical power can be clearly seen in this plot. Not being taught this, the next clinical trial in an almost similar population, with the same strategy, repeated the same statistical plan. Both trials were declared…