A prerequisite to probabilistic thinking is a setting in which it is, at least hypothetically, possible to make a list of all possible events and assign a real number to each. When that real number obeys certain properties, it is a probability, but first you have to have the prerequisite. The London Metals Exchange was notorious for lacking guardrails of other markets, such as automated rules for halting trading. Until this year, I don’t believe trading in nickel has ever been halted on the LME. In March, they halted trading of Nickel for about 2 weeks – and canceled the previous 8 hours of legitimate transactions! There are now lawsuits of course. However, how would a trader have known, a priori, that this possibiltity should have even been part of the sample space? This is not simply a matter of missing information.