You might find this other thread and the some of the cited papers useful: Risk based treatment and the validity of scales of effect
Primary care physicians routinely try to estimate patients’ future risk for adverse cardiac events (e.g., MI) using risk calculators. While imperfect, they are the best we can do in everyday practice at this time. This site provides several options for risk calculators:
https://statindecisionaid.mayoclinic.org
The physician enters a patient’s risk factors into the calculator (e.g., age, smoking status, blood pressure (treated or not), diabetes status, lipid levels) and the calculator estimates the 10 year risk of MI for a patient who is not taking a statin. You can then repeat the risk estimation if the patient were to start taking a statin. You can change various risk parameters to see how estimated future MI risk changes (e.g., you can show the patient how his risk would go down if he were to stop smoking).
Hope this helps.