Whether these concepts are intrinsically defective seems to be a point of endless debate among experts. But there’s no arguing that any method/concept that is so convoluted/counterintuitive that it is still misapplied/misinterpreted by a large fraction of researchers and readers, even after decades of use, is practically defective.
Bayesian framing of study results often feels more straightforward and less vulnerable to misinterpretation by non-expert readers. For this reason, it’s heartening to see more publications using these methods. But I do wonder about the extent to which Bayesian methods themselves are vulnerable to misapplication by sub optimally-trained researchers (?) Any advantage that Bayesian methods might have with regard to ease of interpretation of results could easily be nullified by inexpert Bayesian study design.
Questions:
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To what extent are Bayesian methods currently emphasized within undergraduate and graduate statistics programs?
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What proportion of already-credentialed professional applied statisticians would you estimate are competent at designing trials using Bayesian methods?
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Assuming that a sufficient proportion of professional statisticians becomes expert in Bayesian methods by a certain future date, do you foresee that this teaching could, in turn, be propagated correctly to those who usually provide instruction to a clinical audience? Often, those who instruct clinicians on critical appraisal have some epidemiology or stats training, but primarily focus on clinical practice.
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If the answer to question 3 above is “no,” then do you anticipate that clinicians will simply need to concede ignorance on certain methodologic aspects of critical research appraisal (arguably, many of us already act like we understand frequentist methods when we really don’t…)? Would it be best for clinicians to limit their role in the design and appraisal of studies using Bayesian methods to certain aspects of the process (e.g., prior elicitation?), and to forgo any attempt to understand the nittier/grittier parts?