Examples of solid causal inferences from purely observational data

[Pavlos_Msaouel]

@HuwLlewelyn

Does the decision cause bias by affecting the way in which irbesartan reduces the risk of nephropathy? I cannot think of a mechanism that would cause this. I also cannot think of a mechanism why placebo should change the biochemistry either as the IRMA2 end point was biochemistry, not well being.

Me neither. This is why I have been having such a hard time understanding the argument of the Mueller & Pearl paper that started this thread. Maintaining an open mind that perhaps I am missing something.

In our predictive modeling (technical example here and simplified description here) we have been distinguishing the estimation that informs inferences from the trade-offs that subsequently inform decisions. We do not do the opposite whereby the decisions are turned into inferences influencing estimations.